Bond Market Stability Anchors Rates as Broward Condo Inventory Hits 11-Month High

The final week of February finds the housing market in a period of relative equilibrium as investors digest a string of disinflationary signals, including a January CPI print of 2.4% that has largely calmed fears of a re-acceleration in prices. This cooling trend has allowed the 10-year Treasury yield to settle into a predictable range, providing a much-needed ceiling for mortgage rates and a more stable environment for spring buyers. While macro volatility has subsided, the "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative continues to dictate the pace of the market, shifting the focus from national rate shocks to hyper-local inventory dynamics.

MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has found a comfortable rhythm, averaging 6.1% this week as lenders respond to the lack of major surprises in the latest inflation and employment data. While we aren't seeing the rapid descent some projected at the start of the year, the stability of the "six-percent handle" is a significant improvement over the volatility seen in 2025. Purchase applications have shown a modest uptick, suggesting that buyers who were sidelined by 7% rates are now active, though they remain highly sensitive to daily pricing fluctuations.

FEDERAL RESERVE OUTLOOK

Markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold the benchmark rate steady at its March meeting, maintaining the current target of 3.50% to 3.75%. Despite the encouraging drop in headline inflation, Fed officials have signaled that they require more "durable evidence" of cooling in the services sector before considering a pivot to further cuts. Consequently, the first meaningful rate reduction of 2026 is increasingly being pushed into the second half of the year, keeping the cost of capital elevated in the near term.

HOUSING INVENTORY TRENDS

National housing supply continues its gradual recovery, with active listings up 7.9% year-over-year this February, marking the 28th consecutive month of growth. New listings have also flipped into positive territory, increasing by 2.4% annually, as more homeowners finally decide to trade their low-interest-rate "golden handcuffs" for properties that better suit their current lifestyles. However, this growth remains uneven, with the South and West seeing the most significant supply builds while the Northeast remains constrained by chronic undersupply.

LOCAL MARKET IMPACT — FORT LAUDERDALE / BROWARD COUNTY

In Fort Lauderdale and the broader Broward County area, we are witnessing a widening divergence between property types that defines the current "recalibration" phase. The single-family market remains resilient with approximately 5.1 months of supply, keeping it in balanced territory where well-priced homes still attract multiple offers. In stark contrast, the condominium sector has firmly entered a buyer’s market with inventory swelling to 11.5 months of supply, largely due to the cumulative impact of increased insurance premiums and new structural reserve requirements. For buyers, this creates a significant opportunity for price negotiation and seller concessions, whereas sellers in the condo space must now compete aggressively on both condition and carrying costs to secure a deal.

BOTTOM LINE

• Mortgage rate stability near 6.1% is fostering a more predictable environment for the spring market, though buyers remain disciplined and value-conscious.

• Condo inventory in Broward has reached a multi-year high, shifting the leverage decisively to buyers in the attached-housing segment.

• Insurance and assessments continue to be the primary drivers of local price adjustments, making thorough due diligence on HOA financials more critical than ever.

Written by Lourdes Maestres

The MPH Team – Compass Florida

Weekly Market Insights for Broward & Fort Lauderdale